Javonte Williams Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Javonte Williams

NFL · Player Props

Javonte Williams

RB · Denver Broncos

Receptions

Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 11, 2023 2:51 AM UTC

Analysis

Javonte Williams Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-160/+130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -140 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -160.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Broncos are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.1 pass attempts per game versus the Chargers defense this year: 4th-most in football.
In this week's game, Javonte Williams is expected by the projection model to rank in the 83rd percentile when it comes to RBs with 4.1 targets.
The Denver offensive line profiles as the 6th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all air attack stats across the board.
Javonte Williams checks in as one of the top RB receiving threats this year, averaging an excellent 2.6 adjusted receptions per game while grading out in the 78th percentile.

Favors Under

The Denver Broncos have a new play-caller this season in head coach Sean Payton, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 2.0% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The model projects the Broncos to be the 6th-least pass-heavy offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 58.4% pass rate.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Denver Broncos are forecasted by the predictive model to call only 63.1 total plays in this game: the 4th-lowest number on the slate this week.
The fewest plays in the NFL have been called by the Broncos this year (only 53.2 per game on average).
Javonte Williams's 16.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive volume) has been substantially lower this year than it was last year at 24.1.

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