Javonte Williams Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Javonte Williams

NFL · Player Props

Javonte Williams

RB · Denver Broncos

Receptions

Denver Broncos vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Javonte Williams Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+115/-150).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -170 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects Javonte Williams to garner 3.7 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 84th percentile when it comes to running backs.
Javonte Williams ranks as one of the best running backs in the pass game this year, averaging a fantastic 2.6 adjusted catches per game while grading out in the 79th percentile.
Javonte Williams's 86.9% Adjusted Catch% this year conveys a material improvement in his pass-catching ability over last year's 77.6% rate.
This year, the anemic Vikings pass defense has been gouged for a colossal 90.3% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing RBs: the largest rate in the league.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Denver Broncos offensive strategy to skew 2.0% more towards the run game than it did last season (context-neutralized) with head coach Sean Payton now calling the plays.
The model projects the Denver Broncos to be the 4th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 52.5% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects the Broncos to call the 9th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.3 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.
The 4th-smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the Broncos this year (a lowly 53.7 per game on average).
Javonte Williams's 11.6% Target% this year reflects a significant diminishment in his passing game usage over last year's 16.8% rate.

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