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Javonte Williams

Javonte Williams Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 19

Buffalo Bills vs Denver Broncos

Javonte Williams Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-140/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 13.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 16.5 @ -140.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Broncos are a big 7.5-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.

The predictive model expects the Broncos as the 3rd-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 59.7% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

The leading projections forecast this game to have the fewest plays run on the slate this week at 132.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Buffalo Bills defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, tempting opposing QBs to attempt the 8th-most passes in football (33.9 per game) this year.

Javonte Williams has been used more as a potential pass-catcher this season (44.1% Route Participation Rate in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (29.9%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Javonte Williams's sure-handedness have declined this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate falling off from 84.7% to 78.4%.

With a bad 5.0 adjusted yards per target (19th percentile) this year, Javonte Williams has been among the weakest RB receiving threats in football.

This year, the imposing Bills defense has given up a puny 79.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing running backs: the 5th-lowest rate in the NFL.

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