Javonte Williams Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Javonte Williams

NFL · Player Props

Javonte Williams

RB · Denver Broncos

Receiving Yards

Detroit Lions vs Denver Broncos · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 17, 2023 1:31 AM UTC

Analysis

Javonte Williams Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 20.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

A throwing game script is implied by the Broncos being a -4.5-point underdog in this game.
The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may decline.
The projections expect Javonte Williams to garner 4.8 targets in this week's game, on balance, putting him in the 89th percentile among RBs.
When talking about pass-blocking (and the positive effect it has on all pass game stats), the O-line of the Denver Broncos ranks as the 4th-best in the NFL this year.
Javonte Williams's 83.6% Adjusted Catch% this season shows a material gain in his receiving ability over last season's 77.7% rate.

Favors Under

With a 58.6% rate of passing the ball (in a neutral context) this year, the 7th-least pass-focused team in the league has been the Denver Broncos.
Our trusted projections expect the Broncos to run the 2nd-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 61.6 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.
The Denver Broncos have called the 3rd-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 53.6 plays per game.
Javonte Williams has totaled a paltry -5.0 air yards per game this year: a lowly 6th percentile when it comes to running backs.
Javonte Williams's 16.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially lower this season than it was last season at 24.1.

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