Javonte Williams Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Javonte Williams

NFL · Player Props

Javonte Williams

RB · Denver Broncos

Receiving Yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 11, 2023 3:51 AM UTC

Analysis

Javonte Williams Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-120/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Broncos are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.1 pass attempts per game versus the Chargers defense this year: 4th-most in football.
In this week's game, Javonte Williams is expected by the projection model to rank in the 83rd percentile when it comes to RBs with 4.1 targets.
The Denver offensive line profiles as the 6th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all air attack stats across the board.
Javonte Williams's sure-handedness have gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Catch% increasing from 77.7% to 84.6%.

Favors Under

The Denver Broncos have a new play-caller this season in head coach Sean Payton, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 2.0% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The model projects the Broncos to be the 6th-least pass-heavy offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 58.4% pass rate.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Denver Broncos are forecasted by the predictive model to call only 63.1 total plays in this game: the 4th-lowest number on the slate this week.
The fewest plays in the NFL have been called by the Broncos this year (only 53.2 per game on average).
When it comes to air yards, Javonte Williams ranks in the lowly 10th percentile among running backs this year, totaling just -4.0 per game.

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