Javonte Williams Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

reorder

NFL · Player Props

Javonte Williams

RB · Denver Broncos

Receiving Yards

Las Vegas Raiders vs Denver Broncos · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:20 PM UTC

Analysis

Javonte Williams Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 20.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 21.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.8% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos as the 10th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 61.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Javonte Williams to total 5.1 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 96th percentile among running backs.
Javonte Williams has been among the leading running backs in the pass game since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 19.0 yards per game while checking in at the 81st percentile.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 125.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Denver Broncos have called the 10th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging just 58.4 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Javonte Williams to be much less involved in his offense's pass game this week (14.7% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (20.0% in games he has played).
Javonte Williams has notched a meager -2.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: just 4th percentile among running backs.
Javonte Williams's sure-handedness have worsened this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 83.9% to 71.6%.