Javonte Williams Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Javonte Williams

RB · Denver Broncos

Receiving Yards

Denver Broncos vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 11:30 PM EST

Analysis

Javonte Williams Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 22.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 19.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.1% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects Javonte Williams to earn 3.9 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 89th percentile among running backs.
Javonte Williams has been a key part of his team's passing offense, garnering a Target Share of 11.6% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 89th percentile among RBs.
Javonte Williams has been among the leading pass-catching RBs since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 20.0 yards per game while grading out in the 82nd percentile.
Javonte Williams's talent in picking up extra yardage have been refined this year, averaging 10.75 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a measly 5.65 figure last year.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Broncos to run the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 57.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Denver Broncos have called the 6th-least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 61.0 plays per game.
Opposing offenses have averaged 30.5 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense since the start of last season: 2nd-least in the league.
Javonte Williams has totaled a paltry -1.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: a lowly 7th percentile among running backs.
Javonte Williams's ball-catching skills have diminished this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 83.9% to 74.7%.