Javonte Williams Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Javonte Williams

NFL · Player Props

Javonte Williams

RB · Denver Broncos

Receiving TD

Denver Broncos vs Houston Texans · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 11:25 PM UTC

Analysis

Javonte Williams Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+431/-973).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +432 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +431.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Javonte Williams has been a big part of his team's offense near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 25.0% this year, which ranks him in the 90th percentile among running backs.
Javonte Williams's 17.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the league leaders: 82nd percentile for running backs.
Javonte Williams's receiving reliability have gotten a boost this season, with his Completion% rising from 83.9% to 87.1%.
Javonte Williams grades out in the 89th percentile among running backs as it relates to catching TDs since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 0.17 per game.
The Houston Texans safeties profile as the worst group of safeties in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

The Broncos are an enormous 10-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos offense as the slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 29.43 seconds per snap.
Javonte Williams has notched a puny -1.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: just 8th percentile among RBs.
The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on a mere 3.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-least in football). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.

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