Javonte Williams Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Javonte Williams

NFL · Player Props

Javonte Williams

RB · Denver Broncos

Carries

Denver Broncos vs Cleveland Browns · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 26, 2023 9:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Javonte Williams Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-117/-117).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -104 before it was bet up to 15.5 @ -117.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Broncos feature a new play-caller this season in head coach Sean Payton, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 1.4% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Denver Broncos to run on 46.8% of their downs: the 6th-greatest frequency on the slate this week.
This week, Javonte Williams is forecasted by our trusted projection set to land in the 94th percentile when it comes to running backs with 17.8 carries.
Among all RBs, Javonte Williams ranks in the 88th percentile for rush attempts this year, comprising 56.3% of the workload in his offense's ground game.

Favors Under

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is expected by the predictive model to have only 126.4 offensive plays run: the 2nd-lowest number on the slate this week.
The Denver Broncos have called the 2nd-fewest plays in football this year, totaling just 53.2 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and reduced run volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
When it comes to the defensive tackles' role in run defense, Cleveland's collection of DTs has been one of the most skilled this year, profiling as the 9th-best in the league.

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