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Jauan Jennings

Jauan Jennings Receptions
Player Prop Week 11

San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks

Jauan Jennings Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+120/-150).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ +120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The weather forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, and lower run volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.1 pass attempts per game versus the Seahawks defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.

This week, Jauan Jennings is expected by the projections to secure a spot in the 77th percentile among WRs with 7.1 targets.

Jauan Jennings has been a more important option in his team's passing game this season (22.3% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (8.8%).

Jauan Jennings's receiving talent has gotten better this season, accumulating 4.7 adjusted receptions vs a mere 1.6 last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A rushing game script is implied by the 49ers being a 6-point favorite in this game.

Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the 49ers to pass on 53.5% of their chances: the 4th-lowest rate among all teams this week.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is forecasted by the model to have just 127.3 plays on offense run: the 5th-fewest among all games this week.

As it relates to safeties in covering receivers, Seattle's collection of safeties has been tremendous this year, projecting as the 6th-best in the league.

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