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Jauan Jennings

Jauan Jennings Receptions
Player Prop Week 13

San Francisco 49ers vs Miami Dolphins

Jauan Jennings Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+144/-196).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -149 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -196.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Opposing offenses have averaged 36.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 10th-most in football.

Jauan Jennings's 28.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this year than it was last year at 19.7.

The San Francisco 49ers offensive line profiles as the 9th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing attack stats across the board.

The Miami Dolphins linebackers grade out as the 7th-worst group of LBs in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

The San Francisco 49ers have gone up against a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The 49ers are a huge 8.5-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.

The 49ers have been the 10th-least pass-centric offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year with a 58.2% pass rate.

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 126.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Miami Dolphins defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 3rd-best in the league since the start of last season.

The San Francisco 49ers have gone no-huddle on a mere 3.4% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-least in football). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat production.

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