Jauan Jennings Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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NFL · Player Props

Jauan Jennings

WR · San Francisco 49ers

Receiving TD

Seattle Seahawks vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 16, 2022 12:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Jauan Jennings Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+350/-500).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects Jauan Jennings to be much more involved in his offense's pass game near the goal line this week (13.1% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (6.4% in games he has played).
Jauan Jennings has notched significantly more air yards this year (27.0 per game) than he did last year (21.0 per game).
The Seattle Seahawks linebackers project as the 4th-worst group of LBs in the league this year in covering receivers.
The San Francisco 49ers have been faced with a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Seattle Seahawks have stacked the box vs. opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The 49ers are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to play at the 11th-slowest pace on the slate this week, averaging 26.87 seconds per play based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 32.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 6th-least in the NFL.
Jauan Jennings ranks in the 20th percentile among wide receivers as it relates to catching touchdowns this year, averaging a mere 0.08 per game.
The Seattle Seahawks defense has surrendered the 7th-least touchdowns through the air in the NFL to WRs: 0.77 per game this year.