Jarvis Landry Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Jarvis Landry

NFL · Player Props

Jarvis Landry

WR · New Orleans Saints

Receptions

New Orleans Saints vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 2:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Jarvis Landry Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-155/+125).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Saints to run the 3rd-most total plays on the slate this week with 67.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The New Orleans Saints offensive line ranks as the best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
Jarvis Landry's possession skills have gotten better this season, with his Completion% increasing from 68.6% to 77.0%.
The Seattle Seahawks cornerbacks rank as the 5th-worst group of CBs in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

The Saints are a 5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 32.8 pass attempts per game versus the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 7th-least in football.
Jarvis Landry has been much less involved in his team's passing attack this year (14.3% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (24.8%).
The New Orleans Saints have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.3% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in the NFL). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.
The New Orleans Saints have elected to go for it on 4th down just 14.3% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-least in the league), which generally means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.

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