Jarvis Landry Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

Jarvis Landry

WR · New Orleans Saints

Receptions

New Orleans Saints vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:20 PM EST

Analysis

Jarvis Landry Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+115/-145).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -140 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Saints are a 4-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 134.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 36.8 pass attempts per game against the Minnesota Vikings defense since the start of last season: 7th-most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects Jarvis Landry to earn 7.3 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 81st percentile among wideouts.
Jarvis Landry has been among the top WRs in the game since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 4.5 receptions per game while checking in at the 87th percentile.

Favors Under

The New Orleans Saints have run the 7th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging just 57.6 plays per game.
The New Orleans Saints have played in the 6th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to result in reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced pass game performance when facing windier conditions in this game.
Jarvis Landry has been much less involved in his team's passing attack this year (16.0% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (24.8%).
The New Orleans Saints have gone no-huddle on just 2.3% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in the league). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.
The New Orleans Saints have gone for it on 4th down a measly 14.3% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-least in the league), which typically means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.