Jarvis Landry Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Jarvis Landry

NFL · Player Props

Jarvis Landry

WR · New Orleans Saints

Receptions

San Francisco 49ers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Jarvis Landry Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+108/-138).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Saints are a big 8.5-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Jarvis Landry's sure-handedness have gotten a boost this year, with his Completion% jumping from 68.6% to 71.8%.
The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has yielded the 4th-highest Completion% in the league (70.7%) versus WRs this year (70.7%).
The New Orleans Saints offensive line has afforded their quarterback 2.74 seconds before the pass (3rd-best in football since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all pass attack stats across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints to be the 9th-least pass-heavy team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 58.4% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Saints to call the 9th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints have called the 10th-least plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 56.5 plays per game.
Jarvis Landry has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this year (67.1% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (82.4%).
Jarvis Landry's receiving talent has worsened this year, averaging just 3.5 yards per game compared to 4.5 last year.

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