Jarvis Landry Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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NFL · Player Props

Jarvis Landry

WR · New Orleans Saints

Receptions

New Orleans Saints vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 20, 2022 8:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Jarvis Landry Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+105/-135).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New Orleans Saints will be forced to start backup quarterback Andy Dalton in this contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The Los Angeles Rams pass defense has yielded the 6th-highest Completion% in football (69.5%) vs. wideouts this year (69.5%).
The New Orleans Saints O-line has allowed their quarterback 2.74 seconds before the pass (3rd-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
The New Orleans Saints have gone up against a stacked the box on 23.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints to be the 7th-least pass-centric offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 57.3% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 127.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Jarvis Landry has been much less involved in his team's pass attack this year (15.5% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (24.8%).
The Los Angeles Rams cornerbacks grade out as the 8th-best group of CBs in football this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Los Angeles Rams pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.37 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 4th-fastest in football since the start of last season.