Jarvis Landry Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 10

NFL · Player Props

Jarvis Landry

WR · New Orleans Saints

Receptions

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 14, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Jarvis Landry Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.0 (+135/-170).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.0 @ -115 before it was bet down to 3.0 @ -170.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New Orleans Saints will be starting backup QB Andy Dalton in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
Opposing QBs have averaged 38.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 6th-most in football.
The Pittsburgh Steelers cornerbacks rank as the 7th-worst CB corps in football this year in covering receivers.
The New Orleans Saints offensive line has allowed their QB 2.74 seconds before the pass (3rd-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a positive impact on all air attack stats across the board.
The New Orleans Saints have gone up against a stacked the box on 23.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints to be the 6th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 51.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
The Pittsburgh Steelers pass defense has given up the 9th-lowest Completion% in football (63.6%) vs. wide receivers this year (63.6%).
The New Orleans Saints have gone no-huddle on just 2.3% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in football). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.
The New Orleans Saints have elected to go for it on 4th down a mere 14.3% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-least in the league), which generally means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.