Jarvis Landry Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Jarvis Landry

NFL · Player Props

Jarvis Landry

WR · New Orleans Saints

Receiving Yards

New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Jarvis Landry Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 31.5 (-105/-123).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 35.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 31.5 @ -123.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
The Atlanta Falcons defense has given up the 9th-most receiving yards per game in football (168.0) versus wideouts this year.
The Atlanta Falcons cornerbacks grade out as the 5th-worst group of CBs in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
The New Orleans Saints offensive line has allowed their QB 2.74 seconds before the pass (3rd-best in football since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.
The New Orleans Saints have been faced with a stacked the box on 23.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Saints are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Saints to call the 5th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.6 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints have called the 9th-least plays in the league this year, totaling a measly 55.3 plays per game.
Jarvis Landry has been much less involved in his offense's passing attack this season (14.8% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (23.6%).
Jarvis Landry has accrued quite a few less air yards this year (44.0 per game) than he did last year (55.0 per game).

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