Jarvis Landry Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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NFL · Player Props

Jarvis Landry

WR · New Orleans Saints

Receiving Yards

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 6, 2022 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Jarvis Landry Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 38.5 (+115/-150).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 38.5 @ -135 before it was bet down to 38.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Saints are a huge 8.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Saints to call the 3rd-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weather report calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The New Orleans Saints O-line has allowed their QB 2.74 seconds before the pass (3rd-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a strong impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
The New Orleans Saints have gone up against a stacked the box on 23.5% of their plays since the start of last season, most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 56.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints have called the least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 55.3 plays per game.
Jarvis Landry has been a much smaller piece of his offense's pass attack this year (15.2% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (23.6%).
Jarvis Landry has compiled significantly fewer air yards this season (47.0 per game) than he did last season (55.0 per game).
Jarvis Landry has notched quite a few less receiving yards per game (39.0) this season than he did last season (50.0).