Jarvis Landry Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Jarvis Landry

NFL · Player Props

Jarvis Landry

WR · New Orleans Saints

Receiving Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Jarvis Landry Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 36.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 36.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 36.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Saints are a big 8.5-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Jarvis Landry's sure-handedness have gotten a boost this year, with his Completion% jumping from 68.6% to 71.8%.
Jarvis Landry's pass-catching effectiveness has been refined this season, compiling 8.65 yards-per-target vs a measly 7.58 figure last season.
The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has yielded the 4th-highest Completion% in the league (70.7%) versus WRs this year (70.7%).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints to be the 9th-least pass-heavy team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 58.4% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Saints to call the 9th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints have called the 10th-least plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 56.5 plays per game.
Jarvis Landry has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this year (67.1% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (82.4%).
Jarvis Landry has posted quite a few less air yards this season (50.0 per game) than he did last season (61.0 per game).

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