Jarvis Landry Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Jarvis Landry

NFL · Player Props

Jarvis Landry

WR · New Orleans Saints

Receiving TD

New Orleans Saints vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 2:15 PM EST

Analysis

Jarvis Landry Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+240/-382).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +264 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +240.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Saints to run the 3rd-most total plays on the slate this week with 67.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Jarvis Landry to be a much bigger part of his team's passing attack near the end zone this week (16.8% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (5.6% in games he has played).
The New Orleans Saints offensive line ranks as the best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
Jarvis Landry's possession skills have gotten better this season, with his Completion% increasing from 68.6% to 77.0%.

Favors Under

The Saints are a 5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 32.8 pass attempts per game versus the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 7th-least in football.
Jarvis Landry has posted significantly fewer air yards this year (49.0 per game) than he did last year (61.0 per game).
Jarvis Landry's 30.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably worse this year than it was last year at 54.7.
Jarvis Landry grades out in the 1st percentile among WRs when it comes to catching touchdowns this year, averaging just 0.00 per game.

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