Jarvis Landry Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Jarvis Landry

WR · New Orleans Saints

Receiving TD

Carolina Panthers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 4:50 PM UTC

Analysis

Jarvis Landry Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+316/-578).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -464 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -578.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Saints to run the 2nd-most total plays on the slate this week with 64.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Jarvis Landry has been an integral part of his team's pass game near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 20.0% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 87th percentile among wide receivers.
Jarvis Landry has accumulated a colossal 62.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 75th percentile among wideouts.
Jarvis Landry's 51.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the league leaders: 84th percentile for wide receivers.
Jarvis Landry's ball-catching skills have improved this season, with his Completion% jumping from 68.6% to 82.1%.

Favors Under

The New Orleans Saints have called the 8th-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 61.3 plays per game.
The New Orleans Saints have played in the 6th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which should lead to reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced pass game performance when facing windier conditions in this week's game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.5 pass attempts per game against the Carolina Panthers defense since the start of last season: 2nd-least in the league.
The Carolina Panthers defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the quickest in the league since the start of last season.
The New Orleans Saints have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.3% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in the NFL). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.