Jarvis Landry Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Jarvis Landry

NFL · Player Props

Jarvis Landry

WR · New Orleans Saints

Receiving TD

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 6, 2022 1:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Jarvis Landry Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+387/-807).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -595 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -807.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Saints are a huge 8.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Saints to call the 3rd-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weather report calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The New Orleans Saints O-line has allowed their QB 2.74 seconds before the pass (3rd-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a strong impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
The New Orleans Saints have gone up against a stacked the box on 23.5% of their plays since the start of last season, most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The New Orleans Saints have called the least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 55.3 plays per game.
Jarvis Landry has compiled significantly fewer air yards this season (47.0 per game) than he did last season (55.0 per game).
Jarvis Landry's 32.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially lower this year than it was last year at 52.1.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has conceded the 6th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (62.5%) versus WRs this year (62.5%).
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers cornerbacks rank as the 3rd-best unit in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

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