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Jarvis Landry

Jarvis Landry Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 13

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints

 
 
 
Jarvis Landry Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+387/-807).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -595 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -807.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Saints are a huge 8.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Saints to call the 3rd-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • The weather report calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
  • The New Orleans Saints O-line has allowed their QB 2.74 seconds before the pass (3rd-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a strong impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
  • The New Orleans Saints have gone up against a stacked the box on 23.5% of their plays since the start of last season, most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The New Orleans Saints have called the least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 55.3 plays per game.
  • Jarvis Landry has compiled significantly fewer air yards this season (47.0 per game) than he did last season (55.0 per game).
  • Jarvis Landry's 32.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially lower this year than it was last year at 52.1.
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has conceded the 6th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (62.5%) versus WRs this year (62.5%).
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers cornerbacks rank as the 3rd-best unit in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

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