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Jarvis Landry

Jarvis Landry Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 1

Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints

Jarvis Landry Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+280/-479).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -436 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -479.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Saints to run the 9th-most total plays among all teams this week with 64.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

Jarvis Landry has accounted for a colossal 25.0% of his team's air yards since the start of last season: 81st percentile among WRs.

Jarvis Landry's 54.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in football: 86th percentile for wideouts.

The Atlanta Falcons pass defense has yielded the 3rd-highest Completion% in football (69.7%) to wide receivers since the start of last season (69.7%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Saints are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.

The New Orleans Saints have called the 10th-least plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a measly 60.9 plays per game.

THE BLITZ projects Jarvis Landry to be much less involved in his team's passing attack near the goal line this week (15.5% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (24.4% in games he has played).

The Atlanta Falcons defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.43 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 9th-fastest in the league since the start of last season.

The Atlanta Falcons have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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