Jarrett Stidham TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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NFL · Player Props

Jarrett Stidham

QB · Las Vegas Raiders

TD Passes

Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 8, 2023 1:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Jarrett Stidham TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+120/-150).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -140 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Las Vegas Raiders will be rolling out backup QB Jarrett Stidham this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Raiders are a massive 8.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 7th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 63.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Jarrett Stidham to attempt 38.0 passes in this game, on average: the 7th-most of all quarterbacks.

Favors Under

The Las Vegas Raiders will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.8% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders offense to be the 6th-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 29.19 seconds per snap.
The Kansas City Chiefs linebackers project as the 8th-best group of LBs in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Kansas City Chiefs defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the fastest in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Kansas City Chiefs have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 11.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.