Jarrett Stidham TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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Jarrett Stidham

NFL · Player Props

Jarrett Stidham

QB · Las Vegas Raiders

TD Passes

Las Vegas Raiders vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 1, 2023 8:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Jarrett Stidham TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-250/+190).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ +200 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +190.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Las Vegas Raiders will be rolling with backup QB Jarrett Stidham this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
The Raiders are a 6-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 5th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 64.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 5th-most in the NFL.

Favors Under

The Las Vegas Raiders boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.5% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to run the least total plays on the slate this week with 60.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers defense has conceded the 4th-least passing touchdowns in the league: 1.07 per game this year.
The San Francisco 49ers linebackers profile as the 3rd-best group of LBs in football this year in covering receivers.
The Las Vegas Raiders have incorporated play action on a measly 16.4% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (least in football), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.

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