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Jarrett Stidham
NFL · Player Props
Jarrett Stidham
QB · Las Vegas Raiders
Completions
Las Vegas Raiders vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 17, 2022 Updated Jan 1, 2023 8:36 PM UTC
NFL Props Jarrett Stidham Completions

Jarrett Stidham Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-113/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 17.5 @ -136 before it was bet up to 18.5 @ -113.

Favors Over
  • The Las Vegas Raiders will be rolling with backup QB Jarrett Stidham this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
  • The Raiders are a 6-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 5th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 64.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 5th-most in the NFL.
Favors Under
  • The Las Vegas Raiders boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.5% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
  • THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to run the least total plays on the slate this week with 60.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • The San Francisco 49ers linebackers profile as the 3rd-best group of LBs in football this year in covering receivers.
  • The Las Vegas Raiders have incorporated play action on a measly 16.4% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (least in football), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.
  • The Las Vegas Raiders have gone no-huddle on just 4.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (10th-least in the NFL). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat production.
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