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Jared Goff

Jared Goff TD Passes
Player Prop Week 9

Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions

Jared Goff TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -114.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The projections expect the Detroit Lions to call the 3rd-most total plays on the slate this week with 68.3 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics.

Jared Goff's passing precision has been refined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 66.3% to 73.8%.

With a stellar rate of 1.86 per game (87th percentile), Jared Goff ranks as one of the top touchdown throwers in the NFL this year.

This year, the porous Green Bay Packers defense has conceded a whopping 1.50 passing TDs per game to opposing QBs: the 10th-largest rate in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Lions to pass on 53.0% of their downs: the 6th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.

The predictive model expects the Lions to be the 8th-least pass-heavy team in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 52.6% red zone pass rate.

The 8th-lowest number of plays in the league have been called by the Detroit Lions this year (a lowly 55.4 per game on average).

Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being called for in this game) generally mean decreased passing effectiveness, lower pass volume, and higher ground volume.

As it relates to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Green Bay's safety corps has been tremendous this year, profiling as the 3rd-best in football.

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