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Jared Goff

Jared Goff TD Passes
Player Prop Week 3

Arizona Cardinals vs Detroit Lions

Jared Goff TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-134/+104).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +112 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +104.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Lions have run the 2nd-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 61.2 plays per game.

The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down.

Our trusted projections expect Jared Goff to throw 35.9 passes this week, on average: the 9th-most out of all quarterbacks.

Jared Goff has been among the leading TD passers in football since the start of last season, averaging an outstanding 1.63 per game while checking in at the 80th percentile.

Opposing teams have completed passes at the highest clip in the league versus the Arizona Cardinals defense since the start of last season (73.4% Adjusted Completion%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A running game script is suggested by the Lions being a 4-point favorite in this week's game.

The model projects this game to see the 4th-smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 125.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Opposing offenses teams have been disinclined to rely on the passing game too much against the Cardinals, averaging the 2nd-fewest attempts in the league (a measly 29.2 per game) since the start of last season.

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