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Jared Goff

Jared Goff TD Passes
Player Prop Week 20

Detroit Lions vs Washington Commanders

Jared Goff TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+130/-160).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +160 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is anticipated by the predictive model to have only 129.7 offensive plays called: the 2nd-fewest among all games this week.

The Detroit Lions have called the 6th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a massive 59.6 plays per game.

The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may go down.

In registering a massive 33.2 pass attempts per game this year, Jared Goff ranks among the top QBs in the league (78th percentile) for this stat.

Jared Goff's passing accuracy has improved this season, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 66.3% to 72.3%.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

An extreme rushing game script is suggested by the Lions being a big 8.5-point favorite this week.

The projections expect the Lions to be the 9th-least pass-heavy team in the league near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 52.8% red zone pass rate.

Opposing QBs have averaged 27.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Commanders defense this year: fewest in the league.

This year, the tough Washington Commanders defense has yielded a measly 68.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 7th-lowest rate in the NFL.

As it relates to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, Washington's unit has been tremendous this year, projecting as the 4th-best in the NFL.

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