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Jared Goff

Jared Goff TD Passes
Player Prop Week 17

San Francisco 49ers vs Detroit Lions

Jared Goff TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +150 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +100.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Still weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being forecasted in this game) usually prompt increased passing effectiveness, higher touchdown potential, higher air volume, and lower ground volume.

Jared Goff's 71.0% Adjusted Completion% this year conveys a noteworthy improvement in his passing precision over last year's 66.3% mark.

With an outstanding rate of 2.20 per game (92nd percentile), Jared Goff places among the leading touchdown throwers in the NFL this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Lions are favored in this week's game, suggesting more of a reliance on running than their typical approach.

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Lions to pass on 57.3% of their plays: the lowest rate among all teams this week.

The projections expect the Detroit Lions to be the least pass-focused offense in the league near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 52.9% red zone pass rate.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by our trusted projection set to see just 127.2 plays on offense called: the fewest among all games this week.

The projections expect Jared Goff to throw 34.7 passes this week, on balance: the 5th-fewest out of all QBs.

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