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Jared Goff

Jared Goff TD Passes
Player Prop Week 16

Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions

Jared Goff TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-175/+130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +135 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The 9th-highest number of plays in the league have been run by the Detroit Lions this year (a monstrous 59.4 per game on average).

Jared Goff's 70.6% Adjusted Completion% this season conveys an impressive growth in his throwing precision over last season's 66.3% rate.

With an exceptional rate of 2.14 per game (92nd percentile), Jared Goff rates among the leading TD passers in the NFL this year.

When it comes to linebackers in defending receivers, Chicago's unit has been dreadful this year, grading out as the 8th-worst in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This game's spread implies an extreme running game script for the Lions, who are a huge favorite by 7 points.

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Lions to pass on 53.4% of their opportunities: the 8th-lowest clip on the slate this week.

The Lions have been the 9th-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) this year with a 49.7% red zone pass rate.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is forecasted by the predictive model to see only 129.3 offensive plays called: the 5th-lowest number on the slate this week.

The weather forecast calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.

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