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Jared Goff

Jared Goff TD Passes
Player Prop Week 15

Detroit Lions vs Buffalo Bills

Jared Goff TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-146/+112).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +126 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +112.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The 10th-largest volume of plays in football have been run by the Detroit Lions this year (a massive 58.8 per game on average).

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

Jared Goff's passing precision has gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 66.3% to 72.1%.

With an excellent ratio of 1.92 per game (89th percentile), Jared Goff places among the best touchdown passers in football this year.

This year, the shaky Bills defense has given up a massive 73.0% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 8th-largest rate in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

At the present time, the 8th-least pass-oriented team in football near the end zone (52.0% context-neutralized) according to our trusted projection set is the Lions.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is anticipated by the projections to have only 126.1 total plays called: the 2nd-lowest number out of all the games this week.

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