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Jared Goff

Jared Goff TD Passes
Player Prop Week 11

Detroit Lions vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Jared Goff TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -135.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.

The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing teams to attempt the 7th-most passes in the NFL (36.3 per game) this year.

Jared Goff's 72.4% Adjusted Completion% this year conveys a meaningful improvement in his throwing precision over last year's 66.3% figure.

Jared Goff has been among the best TD throwers in the NFL this year, averaging an impressive 1.78 per game while ranking in the 85th percentile.

Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 2nd-highest level in football vs. the Jaguars defense this year (75.0% Adjusted Completion%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 14-point advantage, the Lions are a heavy favorite in this week's game, indicating much more of a reliance on rushing than their typical approach.

Our trusted projections expect the Detroit Lions to be the 5th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 53.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

The model projects the Detroit Lions to be the 9th-least pass-oriented team in the NFL near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 52.5% red zone pass rate.

The predictive model expects the Detroit Lions offense to be the 3rd-most sluggish paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 29.72 seconds per play.

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