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Jared Goff

Jared Goff TD Passes
Player Prop Week 10

Houston Texans vs Detroit Lions

Jared Goff TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-156/+120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +110 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -156.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects the Lions to run the 8th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.1 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics.

Jared Goff's 75.3% Adjusted Completion% this season marks an impressive progression in his throwing accuracy over last season's 66.3% rate.

Jared Goff has been among the top TD throwers in the league this year, averaging a terrific 1.75 per game while checking in at the 84th percentile.

The Houston Texans defense has conceded the most passing touchdowns in the league: 2.11 per game this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This game's spread implies a rushing game script for the Lions, who are favored by 3.5 points.

The leading projections forecast the Detroit Lions to be the 9th-least pass-heavy team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 58.9% pass rate.

The 8th-lowest number of plays in football have been called by the Lions this year (just 54.8 per game on average).

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.7 pass attempts per game versus the Houston Texans defense this year: 10th-fewest in football.

This year, the stout Houston Texans defense has given up a puny 61.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the best rate in the league.

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