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Jared Goff

Jared Goff TD Passes
Player Prop Week 3

Detroit Lions vs Atlanta Falcons

Jared Goff TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-190/+160).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +165 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +160.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.

Jared Goff has attempted 36.5 throws per game since the start of last season, grading out in the 76th percentile among quarterbacks.

Jared Goff's throwing accuracy has gotten a boost this year, with his Completion% jumping from 65.1% to 71.7%.

Jared Goff has been among the leading touchdown passers in the league since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 1.74 per game while grading out in the 84th percentile.

The Atlanta Falcons defense has yielded the 6th-most touchdowns through the air in football: 1.58 per game since the start of last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Lions are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions as the 4th-least pass-oriented offense in the league near the goal line (adjusted for context) right now with a 52.8% red zone pass rate.

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions offense to be the 8th-worst paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 28.94 seconds per play.

The Detroit Lions offensive line ranks as the 7th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all air attack statistics across the board.

The Atlanta Falcons safeties rank as the 6th-best collection of safeties in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

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