My Account Log Out

reorder

Jared Goff

Jared Goff TD Passes
Player Prop Week 20

Detroit Lions vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Jared Goff TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-170/+140).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -160 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -170.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is forecasted by our trusted projection set to have just 128.8 offensive plays called: the fewest out of all the games this week.

The 8th-highest number of plays in football have been run by the Detroit Lions this year (a massive 59.7 per game on average).

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

The Buccaneers defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, leading opposing offenses to attempt the 10th-most passes in the league (34.7 per game) this year.

Jared Goff has been among the leading TD throwers in the league this year, averaging an excellent 1.72 per game while grading out in the 84th percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Lions are a 6.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a running game script.

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Lions to pass on 57.5% of their plays: the 2nd-lowest frequency on the slate this week.

Right now, the least pass-oriented team in football in the red zone (50.8% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Detroit Lions.

In this week's game, Jared Goff is predicted by our trusted projection set to wind up with the 2nd-fewest pass attempts out of all QBs with 35.8.

More Jared Goff Player Props

© 2022 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™