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Jared Goff TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+110/-135).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -135.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Lions are projected by the projections to run 66.3 total plays in this contest: the 7th-highest number among all teams this week.The Detroit Lions have run the 4th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a staggering 60.9 plays per game.This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.Opposing QBs have averaged 38.1 pass attempts per game against the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: 7th-most in the league.With an excellent rate of 1.75 per game (89th percentile), Jared Goff has been as one of the top TD throwers in the league this year.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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With a 3.5-point advantage, the Lions are favored in this game, implying more of an emphasis on rushing than their standard game plan.At the present time, the 4th-least pass-centric team in the league in the red zone (51.0% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Lions.The projections expect Jared Goff to throw 36.4 passes this week, on average: the 9th-most out of all quarterbacks.As it relates to safeties in covering receivers, Minnesota's unit has been one of the most skilled this year, profiling as the 4th-best in football.
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