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Jared Goff

Jared Goff TD Passes
Player Prop Week 14

Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions

Jared Goff TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-120/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The 6th-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Lions this year (a staggering 60.9 per game on average).

Jared Goff has attempted 37.8 throws per game this year, checking in at the 89th percentile when it comes to quarterbacks.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.8 pass attempts per game versus the Chicago Bears defense this year: 2nd-most in the league.

The Detroit offensive line profiles as the 2nd-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong influence on all pass attack stats across the board.

With a stellar ratio of 1.67 per game (79th percentile), Jared Goff has been among the best touchdown passers in the NFL this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A running game script is suggested by the Lions being a 3-point favorite in this week's contest.

The leading projections forecast the Lions to be the 9th-least pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 55.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

At the moment, the 2nd-least pass-focused offense in the NFL in the red zone (49.7% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Detroit Lions.

Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Lions are expected by the predictive model to run just 62.4 total plays in this contest: the 3rd-fewest on the slate this week.

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