Jared Goff TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Jared Goff

NFL · Player Props

Jared Goff

QB · Detroit Lions

TD Passes

New Orleans Saints vs Detroit Lions · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 4, 2023 4:01 AM EST

Analysis

Jared Goff TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Detroit Lions to call the most offensive plays on the slate this week with 68.2 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.
The Lions have called the 4th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a staggering 61.9 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Our trusted projections expect Jared Goff to throw 37.2 passes in this week's game, on balance: the 5th-most among all QBs.
The Lions offensive line profiles as the 5th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all pass game stats across the board.

Favors Under

This week's spread indicates a rushing game script for the Lions, who are favored by 4 points.
At the moment, the 3rd-least pass-heavy offense in football near the end zone (50.4% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Detroit Lions.
Opposing teams teams have been unwilling to lean on the pass against the Saints, totaling the 10th-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 34.7 per game) this year.
This year, the tough Saints defense has allowed a meager 64.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 3rd-lowest rate in football.
The Saints cornerbacks profile as the 5th-best group of CBs in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

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