Jared Goff TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Jared Goff

NFL · Player Props

Jared Goff

QB · Detroit Lions

TD Passes

Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 23, 2023 5:11 PM UTC

Analysis

Jared Goff TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-160/+130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -155 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -160.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The 6th-highest number of plays in football have been run by the Lions this year (a massive 60.9 per game on average).
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Jared Goff has attempted 38.2 throws per game this year, grading out in the 89th percentile when it comes to QBs.
When it comes to pocket protection (and the strong effect it has on all pass game statistics), the offensive line of the Detroit Lions ranks as the 2nd-best in football this year.

Favors Under

An extreme rushing game script is indicated by the Lions being a giant 8.5-point favorite in this week's contest.
At the present time, the 3rd-least pass-heavy offense in football near the goal line (50.7% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Detroit Lions.
Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 5th-fewest plays run on the slate this week at 127.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses teams have been afraid to test the pass defense of the Green Bay Packers, totaling the 7th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a measly 33.4 per game) this year.
This year, the imposing Packers defense has given up a feeble 1.00 passing touchdowns per game to opposing teams: the 3rd-lowest rate in the NFL.

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