Jared Goff TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Jared Goff

QB · Detroit Lions

TD Passes

Kansas City Chiefs vs Detroit Lions · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 8, 2023 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Jared Goff TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-170/+130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -170.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Lions are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Lions to call the 6th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 65.8 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Jared Goff to attempt 37.6 passes in this week's game, on average: the 6th-most of all QBs.
Opposing offenses have averaged 35.5 pass attempts per game against the Kansas City Chiefs defense since the start of last season: 6th-most in the league.
Jared Goff has been among the top TD passers in the league since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 1.71 per game while ranking in the 83rd percentile.

Favors Under

The Lions rank as the 9th-least pass-heavy offense in the league near the goal line (in a neutral context) since the start of last season with a 50.9% red zone pass rate.
The Detroit Lions have played in the 2nd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which should lead to lower pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing attack efficiency when facing windier conditions in this week's contest.
The Detroit Lions offensive line grades out as the 5th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
The Kansas City Chiefs safeties grade out as the 7th-best group of safeties in football since the start of last season in covering receivers.
The Kansas City Chiefs defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the best in the NFL since the start of last season.