Jared Goff TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Jared Goff

NFL · Player Props

Jared Goff

QB · Detroit Lions

TD Passes

Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 5:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Jared Goff TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-103/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Lions are a 4-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions as the 10th-most pass-centric team in the NFL near the end zone (in a neutral context) right now with a 59.0% red zone pass rate.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Jared Goff has been among the leading touchdown passers in the NFL this year, averaging a stellar 1.71 per game while grading out in the 84th percentile.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 9th-highest clip in the league versus the Green Bay Packers defense this year (73.1%).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 125.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 28.1 pass attempts per game versus the Green Bay Packers defense this year: least in the league.
The Detroit Lions offensive line ranks as the 7th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
The Green Bay Packers defense has conceded the 5th-least passing TDs in football: 1.00 per game this year.
The Detroit Lions offensive line has allowed their quarterback a measly 2.53 seconds before the pass (8th-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.

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