Jared Goff TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Jared Goff

NFL · Player Props

Jared Goff

QB · Detroit Lions

TD Passes

Detroit Lions vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:20 PM UTC

Analysis

Jared Goff TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-115/-111).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +102 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -111.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Detroit Lions offense has played at the 10th-fastest pace in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year, averaging 26.77 seconds per snap.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Jared Goff has attempted 37.5 throws per game since the start of last season, ranking in the 95th percentile among quarterbacks.
Opposing offenses have completed passes at the highest rate in the NFL versus the Seattle Seahawks defense since the start of last season (74.2%).
The Seattle Seahawks safeties profile as the 3rd-worst group of safeties in football since the start of last season in covering receivers.

Favors Under

The Lions are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the 6th-least pass-centric offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 58.4% pass rate.
Jared Goff's throwing accuracy has diminished this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 66.2% to 57.2%.
The Seattle Seahawks defense has allowed the 5th-least passing TDs in the league: 1.30 per game since the start of last season.
The Detroit Lions offensive line has given their quarterback a measly 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.

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