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Jared Goff

Jared Goff TD Passes
Player Prop Week 16

Carolina Panthers vs Detroit Lions

Jared Goff TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+110/-141).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -141 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -141.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Jared Goff has been among the leading TD passers in the NFL this year, averaging a stellar 1.64 per game while checking in at the 77th percentile.

Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 4th-highest level in the league vs. the Carolina Panthers defense this year (73.8%).

The Carolina Panthers safeties profile as the 5th-worst collection of safeties in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

The Carolina Panthers have stacked the box versus opponents on 26.1% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

The Detroit Lions have risked going for it on 4th down 27.9% of the time since the start of last season (most in the NFL), which typically means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive statistics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions as the 11th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 56.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The Lions rank as the 7th-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) this year with a 50.3% red zone pass rate.

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-least plays run on the slate this week at 124.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Detroit Lions O-line grades out as the 4th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing offense stats across the board.

The Carolina Panthers defense has allowed the 10th-least touchdowns through the air in the NFL: 1.29 per game this year.

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