Jared Goff TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Jared Goff

NFL · Player Props

Jared Goff

QB · Detroit Lions

TD Passes

New York Jets vs Detroit Lions · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Jared Goff TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+126/-162).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +124 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +126.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Lions to call the 7th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Jared Goff has been among the top TD throwers in football this year, averaging a terrific 1.69 per game while ranking in the 82nd percentile.
The New York Jets have stacked the box versus opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Detroit Lions have gone for it on 4th down 27.9% of the time since the start of last season (most in the league), which usually means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Lions have been the 9th-least pass-centric offense in the league near the end zone (in a neutral context) this year with a 51.0% red zone pass rate.
The Detroit Lions O-line profiles as the 4th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 6th-lowest level in football versus the New York Jets defense this year (66.8%).
The New York Jets defense has allowed the 2nd-least passing TDs in the NFL: 0.92 per game this year.
The New York Jets cornerbacks project as the best collection of CBs in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

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