Jared Goff Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

reorder

NFL · Player Props

Jared Goff

QB · Detroit Lions

Rushing Yards

Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions · Week 4, 2023

Updated Sep 29, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Jared Goff Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-120/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Detroit Lions as the 7th-most run-centric team among all teams this week with a 45.1% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Lions have played in the 2nd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which should mean reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing attack performance when facing windier conditions in this week's game.
The Detroit Lions O-line grades out as the 5th-best in football since the start of last season at opening holes for runners.
Opposing teams have run for the 6th-most yards in football (139 per game) versus the Packers defense since the start of last season.
The Packers defensive ends grade out as the 4th-worst unit in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast this game to have the 5th-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and lower ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The projections expect Jared Goff to earn 1.8 rush attempts in this week's contest, on average: the fewest of all QBs.
Accounting for a measly 5.0% of his team's carries this year (21st percentile among quarterbacks), Jared Goff's one-dimensionality makes him no threat with his legs.
Jared Goff has generated a measly 4.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the smallest figures in football when it comes to QBs (13th percentile).