Jared Goff Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Jared Goff

NFL · Player Props

Jared Goff

QB · Detroit Lions

Rushing Yards

Detroit Lions vs Denver Broncos · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 17, 2023 12:36 AM UTC

Analysis

Jared Goff Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-125/-109).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -101 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Lions are a 4.5-point favorite this week, indicating a running game script.
The model projects the Lions to be the 7th-most run-focused team in football (adjusted for context) right now with a 41.5% run rate.
The Lions have called the 8th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a colossal 60.6 plays per game.
When it comes to run support (and the importance it has on all run game metrics), the O-line of the Detroit Lions profiles as the 5th-best in the league last year.
This year, the weak Denver Broncos run defense has been gouged for a massive 149.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing offenses: the most in football.

Favors Under

The projections expect this game to have the 2nd-smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 124.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
The predictive model expects Jared Goff to notch 1.8 carries in this game, on balance: the 4th-fewest among all quarterbacks.
Jared Goff is not a mobile QB and has accounted for a measly 3.5% of his offense's rushing play calls this year, ranking him in the 7th percentile when it comes to quarterbacks.
With a very bad tally of 3.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (6th percentile), Jared Goff rates among the bottom running QBs in the NFL this year.

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