Jared Goff Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Jared Goff

NFL · Player Props

Jared Goff

QB · Detroit Lions

Rushing Yards

Detroit Lions vs Miami Dolphins · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 4:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Jared Goff Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-105/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions as the 6th-most run-heavy offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 41.6% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions offense as the 9th-fastest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 27.70 seconds per snap.
THE BLITZ projects Jared Goff to be a more important option in his offense's rushing attack this week (6.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (0.0% in games he has played).
The Detroit Lions offensive line profiles as the 4th-best in football this year in run blocking.
The Detroit Lions have risked going for it on 4th down 27.9% of the time since the start of last season (most in football), which typically means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The Lions are a 4-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Jared Goff to accumulate 1.7 rush attempts in this game, on average: the 6th-least of all quarterbacks.
Jared Goff's rushing efficiency has declined this year, accumulating just 3.48 yards-per-carry vs a 4.45 rate last year.
Opposing offenses have rushed for the 8th-least yards in the league (just 106 per game) vs. the Miami Dolphins defense this year.

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