Jared Goff Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Jared Goff

NFL · Player Props

Jared Goff

QB · Detroit Lions

Rushing Yards

Detroit Lions vs Washington Commanders · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 19, 2022 2:50 AM UTC

Analysis

Jared Goff Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-105/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the 6th-most run-centric offense in football (in a neutral context) right now with a 42.4% run rate.
The Detroit Lions offense has played at the 9th-quickest pace in the NFL (context-neutralized) since the start of last season, averaging 25.27 seconds per snap.
THE BLITZ projects Jared Goff to be a much bigger part of his team's running game this week (7.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (1.7% in games he has played).
The Detroit Lions have gone for it on 4th down 27.9% of the time since the start of last season (most in the league), which generally means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.

Favors Under

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Jared Goff has grinded out a mere 5.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the lowest marks in football among QBs (17th percentile).
The Washington Commanders defensive ends rank as the 5th-best group of DEs in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to run defense.

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